Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 207 1 b ii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Assume the infectivity profile is separable:Then is the discretized generation-interval distribution, is the instantaneous reproduction number, and the infectious disease renewal equation becomesHence whenever the total infectiousness is positive.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 207 1 b i Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
The instantaneous reproduction number at time isIt is the expected number of secondary infections that one infected individual would produce if the transmission conditions at time applied throughout that individual's infectious life. The case reproduction number, also called the effective reproduction number in this question, isthe expected number actually produced by a person infected at as calendar-time conditions subsequently change. The instantaneous quantity is easier to estimate in real time because it depends on current and past incidence; the case quantity depends on future conditions.