Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2014 iii Paper 34 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
For independent and identically distributed random variables sampled from a probability density function , a kernel density estimator with kernel for density estimation and smoothing bandwidth isThe usual kernel for density estimation is nonnegative; finite makes the integrated variance finite. The mean integrated squared error and its bias-variance decomposition of mean squared error areThe interchange is justified by the Tonelli theorem.
For the exponential distribution and the specified unit-width uniform kernel, put . The expected value is . Intersecting this interval with the positive half-line givesOn the true probability density function vanishes, whereasHere for . This leakage across the support boundary proves the integrated squared bias from a density jump:In particular, and suffice. The phenomenon differs from a smooth interior bias of a kernel density estimator: the order-one boundary error persists over a region of width proportional to .
By independence, . Integrating the first term and using yieldsAlso : the kernel density estimator mean is an average of translates of , so the Jensen inequality followed by the Tonelli theorem bounds its squared integral.
To optimize over every , we must establish that useful smoothing bandwidths approach zero, rather than optimize only a formal small- expression. An exact calculation supplies that justification. The autocorrelation integral of the exponential distribution density isAveraging over the two uniform windows, or integrating the piecewise expression for , givesThese formulas show that is continuous on , is strictly positive there because on , and tends to as . Consequently, is bounded away from zero on for every . Its expansion agrees with the supplied .
The choice givesChoose smoothing bandwidths within of the infimum. Their mean integrated squared error tends to zero, and nonnegativity of the integrated variance gives , hence . For any , eventuallyThe last step is the arithmetic-geometric mean inequality. Taking the lower limit and then matches the upper bound. ThusThe original PDF has this constant; the TeX aid's is a transcription error.