Learning hedge in a binary-drift investment model (${\pi }^{\ast }(x)=[b(x)+\sigma K^{\prime }(x)/K(x)]/(R{\sigma }^2)$)

With the binary Brownian drift filter, a stock of observed excess drift $b(x)=\mu -r+\sigma a\tanh (ax)$ is driven by the same Brownian motion as its information state $X$. The Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation for portfolio wealth $w$, dollar stock holding $\theta$ and value $J(w,x)$ includes $\sigma \theta J_{wx}$. Consequently ${\theta }^{\ast }=-[b(x)J_w+\sigma J_{wx}]/({\sigma }^2{J}_{ww})$. For CRRA utility, homogeneity gives $J=K(x)w^{1-R}/(1-R)$ and hence the displayed stock fraction. The second term is intertemporal hedging demand; replacing the unknown drift by its posterior mean while omitting this term does not generally give the optimal policy.