Linear bond pricing in a bounded short-rate diffusion ($P(t,T)=1-(1-e^{-(T-t)})r_t$)

In the model $d{r}_t=r_t(r_t-1)(dt+d{W}_t)$ under the pricing measure, with $0\le r_t\le 1$, the discounted affine expression $D_t[A(T-t)+B(T-t)r_t]$ has zero drift when $A^{\prime }=0$ and $B^{\prime }=-A-B$. Terminal conditions $A(0)=1$, $B(0)=0$ yield the displayed unit bond price. The expression is bounded, so the bounded local martingale criterion justifies pricing by conditional expectation.

For the bounded rate diffusion of linear bond pricing in a bounded short-rate diffusion, $D_t{e}^{-(T-t)}{r}_t$ is a bounded martingale with terminal value $D_T{r}_T$. Dividing its conditional expectation by $D_{t}P(t,T)$ through the Bayes formula for conditional expectation gives the displayed forward-measure expectation. It lies between zero and one.