Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 ii Paper 1 12H iii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
By Gibbs inequality,with equality exactly when . Put , a probability distribution. The optimal log-optimal multiplicative betting rate isFor this is strictly positive by Gibbs inequality; taking in the preceding strong law of large numbers bound proves growth with probability tending to one.
For the casino can set . Every optimal return multiplier is then exactly , so the fortune decreases deterministically as . More generally for that choice. An arbitrary choice with need not cause decline. For example, take , , . Then but . For any fixed positive , making one sufficiently small while preserving also makes the optimal rate positive.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 ii Paper 1 12H ii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Let be independent rolls with the specified probability distribution, and let be the fortune after games. Its multiplicative evolution givesby the strong law of large numbers. The summands have finitely many finite values, so its hypotheses hold. For any , the probability that tends to one. Thus maximizing maximizes the typical exponential growth rate, the objective of log-optimal multiplicative betting. Maximizing expected fortune would be a different objective and would not control the typical repeated-game outcome.