In a group of total size , designate one member and ask whether any of the other labels equals that member's label. Conditional on the designated label, all the other draws avoid it with probability . Independence givesFor , this is approximately , while the probability of some matching pair is approximately . The designated-member question examines pairs; the any-pair question examines all . A repeated label elsewhere in the group does not require a match with its designated member.
Fifteen possible pairs versus five comparisons with one designated member
. Original illustrative labels for six members: . The complete graph includes every possible pair and marks the two equal-label pairs in red. The right panel uses only pairs containing member F, whose label 5 is unique. This chosen configuration illustrates the two different events; it is not a random sample of measured birthdays. Details. Articles by others on the same topic
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