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Use units $c=1$ and take the initially expanding branch with ordinary positive matter or radiation density. In the Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker metric, $k=+1,0,-1$ respectively describe positive, zero and negative spatial curvature. Separately conserved pressureless matter has ${\rho }_M\propto a^{-3}$ and radiation in cosmology has ${\rho }_R\propto a^{-4}$, so either dominates the curvature and vacuum terms sufficiently far back on a hot Big Bang branch.

With negligible cosmological constant, a spatially flat radiation universe has $a\propto t^{1/2}$ and a flat matter universe has $a\propto t^{2/3}$; both expand forever while decelerating. An open universe also expands forever and eventually becomes approximately curvature dominated, with $a\propto t$. A closed universe containing only ordinary matter/radiation reaches a maximum size and recollapses. For example, dust gives ${\dot{a}}^2=C/a-k$ with $C>0$, so only $k=+1$ admits the positive turning point $a=C$.

Curvature alone does not determine the fate when the cosmological constant is retained. Positive $\Lambda$ can cause late accelerated expansion and prevent even a closed universe from recollapsing; whether a closed expanding branch turns around depends on the relative matter and vacuum terms. Negative $\Lambda$ can cause recollapse even for flat or open spatial sections. These statements follow by inspecting ${\dot{a}}^2=C/a-k+\Lambda a^2/3$ for dust; the curvature sign is a geometrical classification, not by itself a universal destiny criterion.

Define the critical density ${\rho }_c=3H^2/(8\pi G)$ and cosmological density parameters ${\Omega }_M={\rho }_M/{\rho }_c$, ${\Omega }_R={\rho }_R/{\rho }_c$, ${\Omega }_{\Lambda }=\Lambda /(3H^2)$ and ${\Omega }_k=-k/(a^2{H}^2)$. The Friedmann equation gives ${\Omega }_M+{\Omega }_R+{\Omega }_{\Lambda }+{\Omega }_k=1$. Dividing the Friedmann acceleration equation by $-H^2$ givesConsequentlyThe deceleration parameter measures the sign and size of the acceleration relative to $a{H}^2$: $q>0$ means deceleration, $q<0$ accelerated expansion and $q=0$ instantaneously zero acceleration. In particular a falling Hubble parameter alone does not imply deceleration, since $q=-1-\dot{H}/H^2$.

For conformal time $d\eta =dt/a$, the conformal Hubble parameter is $\mathcal{H}=aH$. Using matter conservation and differentiating ${\Omega }_M\propto {\rho }_M/H^2$,This is the matter density flow with a cosmological constant. Neglecting ${\Omega }_{\Lambda }$ during matter domination reduces it to the requested relationThat last equation is not exact with nonzero $\Lambda$. For example, a flat dust-plus-vacuum state with $({\Omega }_M,{\Omega }_{\Lambda })=(0.9,0.1)$ gives ${\Omega }_M^{\prime }/\mathcal{H}=-0.27$, whereas the matter-only expression gives $-0.09$.

For the flatness problem, let ${\Omega }_{\mathrm{tot}}={\Omega }_M+{\Omega }_R+{\Omega }_{\Lambda }$. Curvature satisfies ${\Omega }_{\mathrm{tot}}-1=k/(aH{)}^2$, soIn decelerating near-flat radiation and matter eras, deviations therefore grow as $a^2$ and $a$ respectively. Maintaining small curvature at a late epoch requires very small early deviations unless a prior mechanism suppresses them. Cosmic inflation, with $q\simeq -1$, drives the deviation down approximately as $a^{-2}$. If vacuum energy is present, flatness means ${\Omega }_{\mathrm{tot}}=1$, not ${\Omega }_M=1$.