Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 201 2 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
The time is a stopping time, because . Apply the optional stopping theorem to the bounded time :On the stopped value is at least , and elsewhere it is nonnegative. Letting gives the maximal bound for a nonnegative martingale:Stop at a bounded time first, then pass to the increasing event. This avoids assuming uniform integrability of the original process. For , and the bound simply says .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 201 2 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
If , either , or both stopping times exceed . Therefore the maximal bound for a nonnegative martingale and the Markov inequality give, for ,The right-hand side is minimized at . Whenever the claimed bound is nontrivial, , this choice has and is allowed under the corrected overshoot hypothesis. Substituting gives the square-root tail bound for martingale absorption:When the displayed upper bound is at least one, the inequality follows from . This handles every without using the impossible small-threshold hypothesis.