Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2010 iii Paper 28 1 c iii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Put and . For , , so part (ii) gives . Since , taking differences givesThis is the geometric distribution of parameter on the failures-before-first-success convention, with support . Its expected value is , so the bound in part (b)(ii) is attained. This proves the maximum of a downward-biased random walk formula.
The time-zero convention is necessary here. If , then the first step can be and the walk may never return to zero. Using the same hitting probability calculation after that step gives . Also , while its tails at positive remain . Its masses are thereforeThus the printed geometric conclusion is correct for the standard maximum that includes , and false for a supremum restricted to the positive times.