Integrated Gaussian forward-rate process 2026-10-14
For a centered Gaussian forward-rate field with covariance , integrate the short-rate past and the current forward curve together using the displayed mean-square integral. Its variance isFor fixed , its increments are independent of the full earlier forward-rate filtration: their covariance with at is the integral of . Use the uncorrelated jointly Gaussian variables are independent principle first for finite collections and then for their generated sigma-algebra. With , this centered process starts at zero.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 29 6 Solution 2026-10-14
Use for the fixed maturity and for the observation time. The original PDF's discounting uses the instantaneous forward rate over and the short rate over . Let be the centered Gaussian forward-rate field, and defineAssume the covariance and mean have the regularity needed for these mean-square integrals and the maturity differentiation below. Splitting at shows that the discounted zero-coupon bond price isThis integrated Gaussian forward-rate process has deterministic varianceIts independent increments hold relative to the entire specified filtration. Indeed, if and , the covariance between and any earlier is the integral ofSince uncorrelated jointly Gaussian variables are independent, the increment is independent of every finite family of earlier observations and hence of their generated sigma-algebra. The increment has normal distribution with mean zero and variance . Also because .
The Gaussian moment-generating function now givesTherefore the Gaussian forward-rate covariance drift restriction is exactly the deterministic conditionIt turns into a Gaussian exponential martingale with deterministic variance. The subparts establish the requested equivalent descriptions from this common calculation.