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Gaussian exponential martingale with deterministic variance (Mt​=exp(Xt​−v(t)/2))

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Mathematics Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Probability theory Stochastic process Gaussian process
2026-10-14  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
Let X0​=0 and let X be a centered Gaussian process whose increments are independent of the past filtration, with deterministic variance v(t). Its displayed exponential is a positive martingale. Indeed, Xt​−Xs​ is a centered Gaussian random variable with variance v(t)−v(s), so the Gaussian moment-generating function gives
E[Mt​∣Fs​]=Ms​Eexp(Xt​−Xs​−(v(t)−v(s))/2)=Ms​.
(1)
The sign-reversed process has the same variance and the same conclusion. Continuity of paths is unnecessary for this conditional-expectation argument.

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  • Gaussian forward-rate covariance drift restriction
  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2002 / iii / Paper 29 / 6 / Solution

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