Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 47 4 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A control variate is a random variable correlated with the estimator and with known mean . For a fixed real coefficient , define . Then , whileAssuming finite second moments and positive control variance, complete the square to findWhen , the minimum is . A constant control cannot reduce variance. A strongly correlated control, including a negatively correlated one with a negative coefficient, can substantially reduce it.
For multivariate control variates, write , and . Completing the multivariate square givesIf is singular, use its Moore-Penrose inverse. Indeed any null direction has a constant centered control combination and therefore zero covariance with , so lies in the range of . The elementary unbiasedness statement assumes a deterministic coefficient; estimating it from the same simulation may introduce finite-sample bias, whereas an independently trained coefficient keeps the conditional unbiasedness argument valid.