Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 206 2 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
Using the smaller logistic regression, approximate pointwise Wald confidence intervals are an estimate plus or minus times its standard error:Both intervals rely on the large-sample normal approximation and correct model assumptions. The negative slope indicates decreasing purchase probability as price rises. A one-unit price increase multiplies the odds by ; it does not subtract a fixed amount from the probability. There is no significant additional layout effect in the previous likelihood-ratio test, rather than a demonstration of no effect.
In the selected model layout B has the same prediction rule as the other layouts. At price 100 the linear predictor is . Applying the inverse logit link givesThe intercept refers to price zero; if that lies outside the observed price range, its direct substantive interpretation would require extrapolation.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 207 2 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
Put and assume . For fixed and a fixed nonzero difference , the approximate statistical power of the Wald test increases as its noncentrality increases, whereDifferentiating with respect to the continuous allocation givesHence the unique minimum and its associated minimum variance areThis is Neyman allocation. Integer allocations use a feasible adjacent integer to the continuous optimum, comparing the resulting variances; must still hold. It is a large-sample normal approximation argument, not an exact finite-sample power theorem for arbitrary response-adaptive randomization. Under the null , the approximate power is the significance level for any allocation, although the same allocation still minimizes the stated variance.