Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 208 4 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Use as the variance parameter, with prior density relative to . Let and . Multiplying the prior by the likelihood function gives the unnormalized Bayesian posteriorThe printed request for an “improper posterior” should not be read as a claim that this posterior is always improper. Although the prior is improper, integrating over gives a marginal kernel , which is integrable exactly when and . Under these usual nondegenerate-data conditions it is a proper posterior. If those conditions fail, the displayed kernel is improper and there is no posterior probability distribution for a sampler to target.
Completing the square and using the inverse-gamma distribution give the full conditionalsThe inverse-gamma distribution convention is density proportional to . Equivalently the precision satisfiesusing shape and rate, as in the question.
A Gibbs sampler starts from and alternatesThis is the normal mean-variance posterior with a log-uniform variance prior. For a marginal check, : integrating out reduces the shape by . This marginal shape is different from the full-conditional shape .