Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2020 ib Paper 1 6H Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-29
The likelihood contributes precision and precision-weighted mean , while the prior contributes precision and precision-weighted mean . By normal-normal conjugacy with known observation variance, the posterior isThus the posterior mean isWhen , its expectation under true parameter is and its variance is . Hence its frequentist mean squared error is
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 ib Paper 2 6H d Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
As ,whileThus the credible interval and confidence interval have asymptotically equal centres and half-widths, and both contract around the true parameter. Their interpretations remain different: the confidence statement concerns repeated samples, whereas the credible statement concerns posterior probability. This is normal-normal conjugacy with known observation variance.