The supplied plot gives surface heat flux, not a whole-crust mean temperature. At young ages its scatter is substantial. Representative readings suitable for an order-of-magnitude conductive calculation are near Ma and near Ma; plausible graphical ranges are roughly – and –, respectively. These are approximate choices within the plotted population, not uniquely determined statistical means or a digitization of its red curve.
Assume the same normal oceanic crustal thickness km, seafloor temperature , negligible internal crustal heating and a linear conductive profile. These are additional assumptions; the paper supplies conductivity but not thickness. With depth positive downward and the magnitude of the upward flux, Fourier's law gives
This is the crustal mean temperature from conductive heat flow, not the basal temperature, which is twice the excess above . Substitution of gives
A sensible rounded answer is therefore about for the young crust and for the old crust, with a representative contrast K. The corresponding basal values are about and . The quoted graphical ranges instead yield mean temperatures about – and –, at the same assumed thickness.
Figure 1.
Original conductive temperature estimates and their crust-only thermal-buoyancy scaling; thickness, linear profiles and representative fluxes are explicit assumptions
. Details.
The temperatures scale linearly with . Hydrothermal circulation can redistribute heat, especially in young permeable crust, and measurements through sediment need not equal the purely conductive cooling-model flux everywhere. The supplied study explicitly addresses the resulting oceanic heat-flow deficit.[ref] Thus the calculation gives plausible incoming-crust averages under a stated model, not the entire plate's temperature or its later temperature at depth in the subduction zone.