Suppose the forward field is differentiable in maturity with the stochastic integrability needed for differentiation. As time increases, both arguments of increase. The diagonal short-rate dynamics in the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model are therefore
Under the HJM drift restriction from part (a), , giving
More explicitly the slope is
It depends on the forward curve and potentially the whole history, not necessarily on alone. Without the stated maturity regularity, the original forward equations do not by themselves guarantee this classical Itô process formula for the diagonal.
The short rate need not be Markov, even with one Brownian factor and deterministic volatility. An explicit example of One Brownian factor does not imply a Markov short rate takes and . Its no-arbitrage forward drift is , so
The continuous rate history determines from the left derivative of . Hence for ,
But is not determined by : joint normality, , and give
Thus the conditional mean of the future given the whole rate history cannot be a function of the current rate alone, contradicting the Markov property. Enlarging the state to gives a two-dimensional Markov process; special HJM specifications can instead close on a single short rate.
Assume the forward field is sufficiently differentiable in maturity to differentiate its deterministic and stochastic integrals. Moving along the diagonal adds the maturity derivative to the fixed-maturity dynamics:
The Heath-Jarrow-Morton model no-arbitrage drift is , so . Equivalently, from the integrated forward equation,
That drift can depend on the entire previous forward curve or driving path, rather than on the current scalar rate.
The short rate need not be Markov. For a concrete One Brownian factor does not imply a Markov short rate example, take the deterministic volatility . Its admissible risk-neutral drift is , and
Subtracting the deterministic part leaves . The past of reveals its derivative , and . Yet is not determined by : the Gaussian covariance calculation gives
Consequently the conditional law of the future depends on more than , proving failure of the Markov property for the scalar short rate. The enlarged pair is Markov. Special maturity-volatility structures, such as those producing a Vasicek-type short-rate diffusion, can instead admit a scalar Markov realization.