Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 206 6 b Solution 2026-10-05
Write , let , let , and put . Assume the covariance matrix is invertible. Because the mean is known to be zero, every linear predictor is unbiased. Its mean squared prediction error isCompleting the square yieldsThe positive-definite matrix property makes the last term nonnegative, proving the simple kriging formulasThe residual is uncorrelated with . Since the joint law is multivariate normal, it is independent of , so the same predictor and variance describe the conditional distribution. Consequently a 95-percent prediction interval isThere is no constraint that the weights sum to one: that is required for an unknown constant mean in ordinary kriging, not for the stated known-zero-mean problem. If is singular, use a Moore-Penrose inverse with the corresponding covariance compatibility condition. At an already observed location prediction of that very same field value has zero error; predicting an independent noisy replicate is a different target. Estimated covariance parameters make this a plug-in interval and generally add uncertainty that the formula does not include.