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Use a free real scalar field obeying a linear Klein-Gordon equation, for example $(\square -{\mu }^2-\xi R)\varphi =0$. This linearity is the assumption that permits mode evolution by a Bogoliubov transformation. Work with a complete set of normalized modes, or normalizable wave packets when the spectrum is continuous. The stationary asymptotic regions supply time translations relative to which positive-frequency solutions and their complex conjugates can be distinguished.

For solutions define the conserved Klein-Gordon inner productHere $\Sigma$ is a Cauchy surface with future-directed normal. Its conservation follows by applying the wave equation to the divergence of its current, provided boundary flux is included or vanishes. Let $u_j$ be a positive-frequency basis in the past and $v_s$ one in the future, each propagated as a solution through the intermediate geometry. Normalize them by $(u_i,u_j)={\delta }_{ij}$, $(u_i^{\ast },u_j^{\ast })=-{\delta }_{ij}$ and $(u_i,u_j^{\ast })=0$, with the corresponding identities for the future basis. The two field expansions areThe canonical commutation relations give $[a_i,a_j^{†}]={\delta }_{ij}$ and $[b_s,b_t^{†}]={\delta }_{st}$. The in-vacuum satisfies $a_j|0_{-}⟩=0$, while the out-vacuum satisfies $b_s|0_{+}⟩=0$. They are generally different vacua.

Fix the coefficient convention by expanding future modes in past modes:The minus sign is due to the negative norm of the conjugate modes. Taking the Klein-Gordon inner product with the field, which is antilinear in its first entry, givesBoth frequency sectors are needed: if $\beta \ne 0$, a future annihilation operator contains a past creation operator. This is the mechanism of particle number from Bogoliubov coefficients, not a classical nonzero mean field.

Computing $[b_s,b_t^{†}]$ and $[b_s,b_t]$ explicitly gives the canonical identities for a bosonic Bogoliubov transformation:Completeness also gives the inverse $a_j={\sum }_s({\alpha }_{sj}{b}_s+{\beta }_{sj}^{\ast }{b}_s^{†})$. Thus the evolved past vacuum, viewed in the future Fock space, obeysFor a finite-mode treatment with invertible $\alpha$, solve this condition by a multimode squeezed vacuum:The canonical identities make $Z$ symmetric. Commuting $b_s$ through the exponential gives $b_s|\Psi ⟩={\sum }_t{Z}_{st}{b}_t^{†}|\Psi ⟩$, which directly verifies the vacuum condition. Its normalization is $|C|=\det (I-Z{Z}^{†}{)}^{1/4}$. A general initial state is obtained by applying its initial creation-operator polynomial and expressing those operators in the future basis. In infinitely many modes, a common unitary Fock representation requires the creation-mixing coefficients to be Hilbert-Schmidt; finite wave-packet counts avoid treating delta-normalized modes as individual normalizable states. These are the bosonic mode mixing implementability conditions, rather than an assumption of arbitrary finite total creation over an infinite time interval.

For the requested number operator of one future mode, set $N_s=b_s^{†}{b}_s$. Expectations below are in the evolved past vacuum $|\Psi ⟩$, equivalently in $|0_{-}⟩$ using the Heisenberg-mode operators above. Acting on the past vacuum gives $b_s|0_{-}⟩=-{\sum }_j{\beta }_{sj}^{\ast }{a}_j^{†}|0_{-}⟩$, whose squared norm isThe mean particle number vanishes exactly when that mode has no negative-frequency mixing.

The second moment needs the anomalous contractionThe canonical commutation relations give $N_s^2=b_s^{†2}{b}_s^2+N_s$. Moreover,Its vacuum and two-particle pieces are orthogonal. Applying the commutation relations twice showsThe two pairings each contribute $n_s^2$ to the squared norm. Hence the full answer isThus $\mathrm{Var}(N_s)=n_s(n_s+1)+|c_s{|}^2$. These are the out-mode number fluctuations in the in-vacuum. Omitting $c_s$ would assume a property not given in the general question. A thermal single mode has $c_s=0$, giving $⟨N_s^2⟩=2n_s^2+n_s$. A single-mode squeezed vacuum state instead has $|c_s{|}^2=n_s(n_s+1)$, giving $⟨N_s^2⟩=3n_s^2+2n_s$.

If the counted observable is the total number over a finite set of future modes, its moments follow by retaining cross-mode correlations as well. Define $C_{st}=⟨b_s^{†}{b}_t⟩$ and $M_{st}=⟨b_s{b}_t⟩$. The same vacuum pairings give $⟨N_s{N}_t⟩=C_{ss}{C}_{tt}+|C_{st}{|}^2+|M_{st}{|}^2+{\delta }_{st}{C}_{ss}$. Thus $⟨N_{\mathrm{tot}}⟩=\mathrm{tr}C$ and $⟨N_{\mathrm{tot}}^2⟩=(\mathrm{tr}C{)}^2+\mathrm{tr}(C^2)+\mathrm{tr}(M^{†}M)+\mathrm{tr}C$, with $C_{st}={\sum }_j{\beta }_{sj}{\beta }_{tj}^{\ast }$ and $M_{st}=-{\sum }_j{\alpha }_{sj}^{\ast }{\beta }_{tj}^{\ast }$. Independent thermal counts cannot be assumed for a general correlated squeezed state.

For Hawking radiation, choose the incoming vacuum at past null infinity of a collapse spacetime and propagate late outgoing modes backwards. Near a nonextremal forming event horizon, the logarithmic tortoise-coordinate divergence leads to the Hawking exponential ray mapwhere $u$ is late retarded time, $U$ is an early regular affine null coordinate and $\kappa >0$ is the final surface gravity. A late positive-frequency mode $e^{-i\omega u}$ therefore becomes proportional to $(U_H-U{)}^{i\omega /\kappa }$ on rays escaping just before horizon formation. This is not positive-frequency with respect to $U$: it has both frequency signs and hence nonzero $\beta$.

The thermal factor can be seen directly. With $x=U_H-U>0$, $a=\omega /\kappa$ and a regulator $\epsilon >0$, the relevant Fourier integrals areAs $\epsilon \downarrow 0$, the arguments of the two complex factors approach $\pm \pi /2$. Their squared-modulus ratio for the suppressed and enhanced frequency branches is $e^{-2\pi a}$. Thus the thermal ratio of Hawking Bogoliubov coefficients, combined with the canonical normalization, yields the bosonic occupationin units $\hslash =c=k_B=1$. Scattering through the exterior potential multiplies the asymptotic occupation by the appropriate greybody factor.

A complete future mode description includes modes crossing the horizon as well as modes reaching future null infinity. The global incoming vacuum develops correlations between these sectors; restricting to the exterior gives approximately thermal outgoing occupation rather than a claim that the complete pure state became a thermal mixed state. This is the particle-production picture of a collapsing black hole, not an incoming thermal bath on an eternal geometry. Including backreaction turns the emitted positive energy into black-hole mass loss. The renormalized quantum stress tensor is not subject to the pointwise classical positivity used in the black-hole area theorem, so this does not contradict its classical proof.