Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2004 / ib / Paper 4 / 19H / Solution

A Bayes estimator minimizes the integrated loss function under the prior and sampling distribution. For a nonnegative loss, Tonelli's theorem and the posterior distribution give the risk decompositionwhere $m$ is the marginal density. Thus choosing, for each observed $x$, a measurable minimizer of the posterior expected loss minimizes the integrated risk. Observations of marginal probability zero do not affect the rule.

Here the likelihood is $\theta e^{-\theta x}$ and the prior is $\mu e^{-\mu \theta }$ on positive parameters. Put $b=\mu +x$. Their product is $\mu \theta e^{-b\theta }$, and ${\int }_0^{\infty }\theta e^{-b\theta }d\theta =b^{-2}$. The marginal density and posterior are thereforeThis Gamma-exponential conjugacy calculation gives a Gamma distribution with shape $2$ and rate $b$. It is the posterior, rather than the prior alone, which determines both requested estimators.