Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2005 / ii / Paper 3 / 27J / c / Solution

The terminal European put option payoffs are zero at forty-five, thirty-six and sixteen, and five at ten. At the good first node its value is zero. At the bad node its continuation value is $(4/5)[(5/6)0+(1/6)5]=2/3$, below the exercise payoff three, so optimal exercise occurs there. At time zero the continuation value is $(4/5)[(3/8)0+(5/8)3]=\boxed{3/2}$, exceeding the immediate payoff zero.

To hedge one sold American put option, short $1/6$ of a share and put four in the bank at time zero. The portfolio costs $-15/6+4=3/2$, exactly the premium. At time one the bank holds five. After a good move the short position costs five to close, exhausting the portfolio and liability. After a bad move it costs two to close, leaving three for the exercised put. Thus after two bad periods the rational buyer already exercised at time one, and the hedge pays three and closes then; there is no remaining time-two obligation. Physical delivery gives the same accounting by immediately selling the stock received on exercise.