Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2018 / ib / Paper 3 / 20H (Statistics)

Under the null hypothesis that treatment and recovery are independent, estimate each expected cell count byand form the Pearson chi-squared test of independence statistic ${\chi }^2=\sum (O-E{)}^2/E$. For a $2\times 2$ table its asymptotic null law is a chi-squared distribution with one degree of freedom. A second-order Taylor expansion of the generalized likelihood-ratio test statistic $-2\log \Lambda$ around the fitted counts gives this Pearson statistic, which explains its asymptotic null distribution.

Writing the four residuals over their fitted counts and simplifying givesFor $(a,b,c,d)=(50,10,15,5)$,whose one-degree-of-freedom p-value is about $0.41$. There is no evidence of an effect. One fitted count is only $3.75$, however, so the chi-squared approximation is questionable; Fisher's exact test would be preferable.