Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2018 / ii / Paper 1 / 5J / Solution

Write $Y_i$ for the request count on day $i$. Both fits are Poisson regression models with independentIn model 1,where the variables are indicator variables for winter, weekend, bank holiday, and low or medium pollution; non-winter weekdays that are not bank holidays and have high pollution form the baseline. Model 2 imposesretaining only winter and weekend effects.

The models are nested, and the likelihood-ratio test statistic is the decrease in residual deviance,There are three restrictions. By Wilks theorem, under $H_0$ this statistic is asymptotically a chi-squared distribution with three degrees of freedom. Sincewe reject model 2 at the $1\%$ level in favour of model 1.