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Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2018 / ii / Paper 2 / 28K / c / Solution

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 ii Paper 2 28K c
Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-03  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
Combining the Gaussian likelihood with the prior θ∼Np​(0,c2Ip​) gives the posterior precision and mean
Ip​+c−2Ip​,(Ip​+c−2Ip​)−1X.
(1)
Thus the posterior in the Gaussian normal-mean shrinkage Bayes estimator is
θ∣X∼Np​(1+c2c2​X,1+c2c2​Ip​).
(2)
The Bayes estimator under squared error loss is the posterior mean, so
θc​(X)=1+c2c2​X.​
(3)
Its posterior expected loss is the trace of the posterior covariance and does not depend on X. Therefore its Bayes risk is
r(πc​)=1+c2pc2​.​
(4)

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