An instrumental variable supplies variation in an exposure that can be used for causal inference about its effect on . Its three core requirements are:
- Instrument relevance: changes the distribution of ; in a simple linear model this requires a nonzero first-stage association.
- Instrumental-variable independence: is independent of unmeasured common causes of and , or independent of the relevant potential outcomes conditional on specified measured covariates.
- Exclusion restriction: interventions on affect only through , with no other causal pathway. In potential outcomes notation, .
Relevance, independence, and exclusion are the core instrumental-variable assumptions. They do not by themselves identify an arbitrary population-average effect. For a binary instrument and treatment, instrumental-variable monotonicity and the usual consistency in causal inference assumptions can identify a local average treatment effect; stronger effect-homogeneity or structural-model assumptions are needed for other effect interpretations.
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