Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2018 / iii / Paper 211 / 1 / d

Write $q_{15},q_{12},q_9$ for the state probabilities under an equivalent martingale measure. Since cash is constant and the European put option pays only in the lowest state, the pricing equations areTheir unique solution is $q_9={\xi }_0/2$, $q_{15}={\xi }_0/2-2/3$, $q_{12}=5/3-{\xi }_0$. Every physical state has positive probability, so equivalence requires all three values to be strictly positive. ThusFor each price in this open interval the pricing kernel takes values $3q_{15},3q_{12},3q_9$ in the three equally likely states, proving absence of arbitrage.

The necessity, including the exclusion of endpoints, can also be checked directly. The three terminal payoff vectors of cash, the stock and the European put option form the invertible matrixEach unit state payoff therefore has a replicating strategy, whose initial cost is the corresponding $q$. A zero or negative $q$ supplies an arbitrage, so the endpoints are genuinely excluded.