Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2023 / iii / Paper 218 / 3 / b

Model 1's residuals have a systematic curved pattern and a spread that grows strongly with fitted time. This indicates an incorrect linear mean on the original scale and heteroscedasticity; several observations are also influential or outlying. The constant-variance assumption is therefore implausible.

Logging time greatly stabilizes the spread and removes most of the mean pattern, so model 2 is much more compatible with constant conditional variance and linearity. A few conspicuous residuals remain. A residual-versus-fitted plot alone does not check independence or fully establish normality.