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For scale $\sigma >0$ and shape $\xi$, the generalized Pareto distribution on nonnegative excesses has cumulative distribution functionThe case $\xi =0$ is the continuous limit $1-e^{-y/\sigma }$. Positive $\xi$ gives a power-law tail, zero gives an exponential distribution, and negative $\xi$ gives a finite upper endpoint $-\sigma /\xi$. Its role in modelling high-threshold excesses is explained by the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem.

This is the generalized Pareto distribution for the excess $X-u$, with scale $\sigma >0$ and shape $\xi$. Its support requires $1+\xi (x-u)/\sigma >0$. The Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem says that, for distributions in an appropriate extreme-value domain of attraction, the conditional distribution of excesses above a sufficiently high threshold approaches a generalized Pareto form. This makes it the natural peaks-over-threshold method model; it is an asymptotic justification, not an assertion that every threshold is sufficiently high.

For $\xi >0$, the tail decays as a power and has no finite upper endpoint, giving a heavy tail. For $\xi =0$, the limiting distribution is exponential, with survival probability $\exp \{-(x-u)/\sigma \}$. For $\xi <0$, there is a finite upper endpoint $u-\sigma /\xi$, giving a bounded tail. Thus the sign of the shape parameter distinguishes heavy, exponential-type and bounded tails.