Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 iii Paper 33 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
For a normalized kernel for density estimation , with , the kernel density estimator isIt replaces each atom of the empirical measure by a translated, scaled copy of : averaging these small probability-density bumps gives a smooth approximation to the sampling density. Integral one is part of the probability-kernel convention; without it, the estimator generally targets .
The printed bandwidth assumption is insufficient for the claimed normal limit. The additional condition is needed at points with positive density. For a counterexample, take a normal distribution density , , the unit-width box kernel and . Then , but the probability that any observation lies in the window is at most . On the complementary event the estimator is zero, and . The limit in probability is therefore zero, whereas the stated normal limit has positive variance.
We now prove the intended pointwise central limit theorem for a kernel density estimator under , and . The first condition also follows from the last one. A mean value theorem bound, with , gives the bias of a kernel density estimatorThus the bias multiplied by tends to zero.
The Lindeberg-Feller central limit theorem says that independent centered variables in each row of a triangular array have sum converging in distribution to if the sum of their variances tends to and, for every , the sum of their truncated second moments tends to zero. Put and . The independence hypothesis holds within each row. A change of variable givesContinuity of at and the compact support and boundedness of justify the limit. Also , so the Lindeberg condition is eventually identically zero for every . The sum is exactly . Combining the centered limit with the negligible bias by the Slutsky theorem provesIf , the centered variance tends to zero, and the Chebyshev inequality proves the corresponding degenerate limit directly.
For , let be the supplied -quantile of this limiting normal distribution. Inverting the limiting central probability gives the confidence intervalContinuity of the limiting distribution gives asymptotic coverage . Equivalently, its half-width is under the stipulated oracle quantiles. A degenerate limit at does not by itself justify this nominal-coverage normal interval.