Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 36 1 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Fix and put . Since , the clock in part (a) is at most on . The Poisson maximal concentration bound gives, for every ,Here for , so the probabilities are summable in . The Borel-Cantelli lemma, first for positive rational and then for all , yields almost surely. No independence between the processes for different population sizes is required.
The deterministic SI model solves the logistic equation with , givingOn , is Lipschitz continuous with constant . Subtracting the two integral equations givesThe Gronwall inequality impliesThis is the uniform almost-sure fluid limit of the SI model. One can take the intersection of the probability-one events for integer to obtain the conclusion on every finite interval. Use population sizes with integral; if the initial susceptible count is rounded, the extra initial error is at most and the same Gronwall inequality proof applies.
The stochastic SI model with susceptible fraction , initial limit , and total infection rate has deterministic limitThe Poisson time-change representation of a Markov chain writes as its integrated drift minus a centered Poisson error. On its clock is at most . The Poisson maximal concentration bound makes every fixed error tolerance have summable probabilities in , so the Borel-Cantelli lemma gives uniform error decay almost surely. The Gronwall inequality transfers that decay to , because the drift is Lipschitz continuous. The assertion is for fixed finite intervals and does not claim approximation over times growing with .
Ville inequality 2026-10-14
For a nonnegative martingale, the displayed maximal probability bound follows by stopping at the first crossing of . The stopped expectation is at most its initial expectation, and on the crossing event its value is at least . Bound the stopping time first and pass to the limit using nonnegativity. This form is useful for the Poisson maximal concentration bound.
