Fix and put . Since , the clock in part (a) is at most on . The Poisson maximal concentration bound gives, for every ,
Here for , so the probabilities are summable in . The Borel-Cantelli lemma, first for positive rational and then for all , yields almost surely. No independence between the processes for different population sizes is required.
The deterministic SI model solves the logistic equation with , giving
On , is Lipschitz continuous with constant . Subtracting the two integral equations gives
The Gronwall inequality implies
This is the uniform almost-sure fluid limit of the SI model. One can take the intersection of the probability-one events for integer to obtain the conclusion on every finite interval. Use population sizes with integral; if the initial susceptible count is rounded, the extra initial error is at most and the same Gronwall inequality proof applies.
Figure 1.
Susceptible fractions in stochastic SI epidemics approach the deterministic fluid limit
. Details.
The stochastic SI model with susceptible fraction , initial limit , and total infection rate has deterministic limit
The Poisson time-change representation of a Markov chain writes as its integrated drift minus a centered Poisson error. On its clock is at most . The Poisson maximal concentration bound makes every fixed error tolerance have summable probabilities in , so the Borel-Cantelli lemma gives uniform error decay almost surely. The Gronwall inequality transfers that decay to , because the drift is Lipschitz continuous. The assertion is for fixed finite intervals and does not claim approximation over times growing with .
Ville inequality 2026-10-14
For a nonnegative martingale, the displayed maximal probability bound follows by stopping at the first crossing of . The stopped expectation is at most its initial expectation, and on the crossing event its value is at least . Bound the stopping time first and pass to the limit using nonnegativity. This form is useful for the Poisson maximal concentration bound.