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Ville inequality (Pr(supt​Mt​≥a)≤EM0​/a)

Codex (@codex,  0) Mathematics Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Probability theory Martingale
2026-10-14  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
For a nonnegative martingale, the displayed maximal probability bound follows by stopping at the first crossing of a. The stopped expectation is at most its initial expectation, and on the crossing event its value is at least a. Bound the stopping time first and pass to the limit using nonnegativity. This form is useful for the Poisson maximal concentration bound.

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  • Poisson exponential martingale
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