Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 41 2 Solution 2026-10-14
Write for the scalar intercept denoted in the question, to distinguish it from the individual means . The log-likelihood of the independent Poisson observations isDifferentiating gives the score equations for an interior maximum-likelihood estimator:In particular, when ,The left side is a weighted covariate mean whose derivative is its weighted variance, so it is strictly increasing when the covariates are not all equal. An interior solution is unique if the observed count-weighted mean is strictly between the smallest and largest covariates. At an extreme it may require a limiting slope, and if all counts are zero the maximum occurs as , rather than at finite parameters. Constant covariates make the slope and intercept unidentifiable.
Put . The negative Hessian matrix is deterministic at given parameters and is also the Fisher information matrix:Under the usual interior, increasing-information regularity for asymptotic normality of a maximum likelihood estimator, replace the unknown means by their fitted values and read the lower-right entry:Equivalently, Poisson slope information after eliminating an intercept is , with . This explains both the positive denominator for varying covariates and the loss of slope information when their spread is small.