There is a literal domain error in the printed formula. A semivariogram indexed by a signed displacement must satisfy , since reversing the two observations leaves the squared increment unchanged. For positive or , the displayed positive-lag value is nonzero whereas the displayed negative-lag value is zero. Thus the claim on all of is false as written.
Interpret the argument as a nonnegative distance, or use the even extension of the Gaussian semivariogram. For and , the intended model is
It admits the covariogram
The Gaussian kernel is a positive-definite kernel, as can be seen from the Fourier transform of a Gaussian: in one dimension
and the nonnegative spectral density makes every finite covariance quadratic form nonnegative. In higher dimensions use the product Gaussian density. Adding independent Gaussian white noise of variance adds the diagonal nugget covariance. Thus a zero-mean stationary Gaussian random field exists with this covariance, and gives the corrected semivariogram.
For nonzero structured variance, the nugget effect is the right limit at zero, the sill of a semivariogram is , and the range of a semivariogram is infinite if defined as the distance at which the sill is exactly reached. A 95-percent practical range solves :
The scale is sometimes called the range parameter; it is neither the exact range nor the 95-percent practical range. If , there is no nontrivial structured range.
The fact that a semivariogram does not determine stationarity is a further distinction: a semivariogram specifies increment variation, not a unique process or absolute covariance. Adding an independent random constant adds a constant to without changing . More strongly, subtracting from a stationary field preserves its semivariogram but generally makes its variance depend on . The corrected statement is that this semivariogram admits a second-order stationary model, with the displayed covariance using the usual convention at large distance; it does not force every compatible process to be stationary.
The universal kriging model has a linear drift in and a zero-mean Gaussian residual field:
The Gau range parameter in this software is , since its semivariogram uses . The output gives , , and , hence . The exact Gaussian range is infinite; the 95-percent practical range is approximately in the coordinate distance units.
The BLUE=TRUE option asks for the best linear unbiased estimator of the drift, rather than the full field kriging prediction. Thus the two printed fitted trends give at and at . Therefore
There is no coefficient in the drift. The reported variances and are the variances of the corresponding estimated trend values, not full-field prediction variances. They do not determine the slope variance without its covariance with the intercept. The interpolated map can still vary with through the correlated residual prediction, even though the fitted deterministic drift depends only on .