For a generalized likelihood-ratio test, maximize the likelihood separately over the null parameter space and the unrestricted space. Define , and reject for small , equivalently large . Choose the rejection threshold to achieve the desired null significance level, using an exact distribution when available or a justified asymptotic calibration; nuisance parameters are fitted under the respective restrictions.
For independent Poisson distributions, the likelihood is . The unrestricted maximizers are , allowing zero as a boundary value. Under the common-mean null, maximizing gives . The exponential and factorial factors cancel in the ratio, yielding
If all counts are zero, set and ; no division by is then needed.
For positive , put , so . Expanding the logarithm gives
Consequently
It is the quadratic Pearson approximation to the Poisson deviance. The approximated statistic is the logarithmic ratio , not the bounded raw ratio .
Under the null in the large-common-count regime, this statistic has an approximate chi-squared distribution with degrees of freedom: fitting the common mean removes one independent residual direction. For , use six degrees of freedom. At , the upper-tail probability in that approximation is
Thus reject the equal-mean null at conventional 5% or 1% significance levels, provided the expected counts justify the chi-square approximation. No particular significance level or common count was supplied, so the numerical decision is stated with those assumptions.
For independent Poisson counts, the log-likelihood at mean vector is
The saturated model maximizes each cell separately at , including the boundary value zero. If is the fitted mean under the log-linear regression, twice the saturated-minus-fitted log-likelihood is the full Poisson deviance
with understood by continuity. The fitted intercept has score function , since differentiating the logarithmic mean with respect to that intercept gives one. Its maximum-likelihood equation therefore gives . This is why Poisson deviance simplifies when an intercept is fitted:
Without the fitted unpenalized intercept, one cannot generally discard the two linear terms. The individual logarithmic terms in the simplified sum need not each be positive; nonnegativity belongs to the full deviance, or to the full cell contributions before cancellation.
For the approximation, write and expand . When relative residuals are small,
Consequently the quadratic Pearson approximation to the Poisson deviance is
the Pearson chi-squared statistic for unit Poisson dispersion. Adequate expected counts and small relative residuals are what make the quadratic approximation useful; it is not an exact identity and can be poor for sparse cells, especially a zero count with positive fitted mean. Any further chi-squared goodness-of-fit reference needs its own large-count regularity assumptions.