Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2001 ib Paper 2 12D Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
For a generalized likelihood-ratio test, maximize the likelihood separately over the null parameter space and the unrestricted space. Define , and reject for small , equivalently large . Choose the rejection threshold to achieve the desired null significance level, using an exact distribution when available or a justified asymptotic calibration; nuisance parameters are fitted under the respective restrictions.
For independent Poisson distributions, the likelihood is . The unrestricted maximizers are , allowing zero as a boundary value. Under the common-mean null, maximizing gives . The exponential and factorial factors cancel in the ratio, yieldingIf all counts are zero, set and ; no division by is then needed.
For positive , put , so . Expanding the logarithm givesConsequentlyIt is the quadratic Pearson approximation to the Poisson deviance. The approximated statistic is the logarithmic ratio , not the bounded raw ratio .
Under the null in the large-common-count regime, this statistic has an approximate chi-squared distribution with degrees of freedom: fitting the common mean removes one independent residual direction. For , use six degrees of freedom. At , the upper-tail probability in that approximation isThus reject the equal-mean null at conventional 5% or 1% significance levels, provided the expected counts justify the chi-square approximation. No particular significance level or common count was supplied, so the numerical decision is stated with those assumptions.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 36 5 i Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
For independent Poisson counts, the log-likelihood at mean vector isThe saturated model maximizes each cell separately at , including the boundary value zero. If is the fitted mean under the log-linear regression, twice the saturated-minus-fitted log-likelihood is the full Poisson deviancewith understood by continuity. The fitted intercept has score function , since differentiating the logarithmic mean with respect to that intercept gives one. Its maximum-likelihood equation therefore gives . This is why Poisson deviance simplifies when an intercept is fitted:Without the fitted unpenalized intercept, one cannot generally discard the two linear terms. The individual logarithmic terms in the simplified sum need not each be positive; nonnegativity belongs to the full deviance, or to the full cell contributions before cancellation.
For the approximation, write and expand . When relative residuals are small,Consequently the quadratic Pearson approximation to the Poisson deviance isthe Pearson chi-squared statistic for unit Poisson dispersion. Adequate expected counts and small relative residuals are what make the quadratic approximation useful; it is not an exact identity and can be poor for sparse cells, especially a zero count with positive fitted mean. Any further chi-squared goodness-of-fit reference needs its own large-count regularity assumptions.