Coverage excess from central quantiles at a zero-duration atom is the additional distributional probability included when a closed quantile interval captures an entire point mass at zero. Here coverage means probability under the stated duration model. For with , the zero mass is and the positive part is continuous. Let , , and use the lower quantiles from quantiles of a clipped Gaussian acquisition duration.
For the closed central interval , its probability isTo verify this, write the probability as . When both endpoints are positive, the lower left limit is and the upper value is . Once the lower endpoint is zero, its left limit is zero; if the upper endpoint is zero too, the interval contains exactly the zero atom. Endpoint inclusion is therefore part of the probability calculation.
For a nominal 95 percent central construction, zero masses , and give actual probabilities , and respectively. In the middle case, the excess is , not the whole atom: the interval already includes the probability between zero and the upper quantile.
As an original dimensional example, set , and , giving . The nominal central 95 percent interval is approximately and contains probability . SciPy documents the normal cdf and inverse-cdf ppf used to evaluate these Gaussian-component values.[ref]
SciPy 1.16.2 documentation. scipy.stats.norm, Methods: cdf and ppf
A one-sided upper interval or a separately specified probability construction can target a different included probability. Randomized endpoint inclusion at a zero-duration atom would require an explicit randomization rule, not a change made silently after seeing an endpoint equal zero. NIST explains why interval interpretation requires the input distributions and the chosen construction.[ref]
Guidelines for Evaluating and Expressing the Uncertainty of NIST Measurement Results by Barry N. Taylor and Chris E. Kuyatt. §6.3, Expanded Uncertainty
Distributional probability for this conditional acquisition model is separate from a worst-case optical-energy guarantee or a confidence procedure for an unknown fixed parameter.Distribution sensitivity of randomized zero-endpoint probabilities quantifies how the probability equality in randomized endpoint inclusion at a zero-duration atom changes when its assumed duration law is wrong. Let the nominal law have zero-atom probability , choose a positive upper endpoint with nominal cumulative distribution function , and put , with . Use the parent's independently randomized decision to include zero.
If the actual zero probability is and the actual cumulative distribution function is , the included probability isSubtracting the target separates the two model errors:The first term is upper-endpoint probability error; the second is atom-probability error in a randomized endpoint rule. This identity is an algebraic consequence of independence of the auxiliary random draw, not a normal-approximation result. The documented uniform distribution random-variates construction supplies that auxiliary draw; normal cdf/ppf routines can evaluate a specified clipped-normal duration model.[ref]
For an original misspecification example, choose , , and , so . Suppose instead and . Thenwhich is below : comes from the upper endpoint and from the atom. These are stipulated distributions, not measured failure rates.
More generally, bounds and imply . This propagates validated model-error bounds only. Estimating the nominal law from the same observation used for the interval can add dependence; the unconditional fixed-rule identity then requires an appropriate joint or conditional argument.