Coverage excess from central quantiles at a zero-duration atom is the additional distributional probability included when a closed quantile interval captures an entire point mass at zero. Here coverage means probability under the stated duration model. For with , the zero mass is and the positive part is continuous. Let , , and use the lower quantiles from quantiles of a clipped Gaussian acquisition duration.
For the closed central interval , its probability is
To verify this, write the probability as . When both endpoints are positive, the lower left limit is and the upper value is . Once the lower endpoint is zero, its left limit is zero; if the upper endpoint is zero too, the interval contains exactly the zero atom. Endpoint inclusion is therefore part of the probability calculation.
For a nominal 95 percent central construction, zero masses , and give actual probabilities , and respectively. In the middle case, the excess is , not the whole atom: the interval already includes the probability between zero and the upper quantile.
As an original dimensional example, set , and , giving . The nominal central 95 percent interval is approximately and contains probability . SciPy documents the normal cdf and inverse-cdf ppf used to evaluate these Gaussian-component values.[ref]
A one-sided upper interval or a separately specified probability construction can target a different included probability. Randomized endpoint inclusion at a zero-duration atom would require an explicit randomization rule, not a change made silently after seeing an endpoint equal zero. NIST explains why interval interpretation requires the input distributions and the chosen construction.[ref] Distributional probability for this conditional acquisition model is separate from a worst-case optical-energy guarantee or a confidence procedure for an unknown fixed parameter.
Distribution sensitivity of randomized zero-endpoint probabilities quantifies how the probability equality in randomized endpoint inclusion at a zero-duration atom changes when its assumed duration law is wrong. Let the nominal law have zero-atom probability , choose a positive upper endpoint with nominal cumulative distribution function , and put , with . Use the parent's independently randomized decision to include zero.
If the actual zero probability is and the actual cumulative distribution function is , the included probability is
Subtracting the target separates the two model errors:
The first term is upper-endpoint probability error; the second is atom-probability error in a randomized endpoint rule. This identity is an algebraic consequence of independence of the auxiliary random draw, not a normal-approximation result. The documented uniform distribution random-variates construction supplies that auxiliary draw; normal cdf/ppf routines can evaluate a specified clipped-normal duration model.[ref]
For an original misspecification example, choose , , and , so . Suppose instead and . Then
which is below : comes from the upper endpoint and from the atom. These are stipulated distributions, not measured failure rates.
More generally, bounds and imply . This propagates validated model-error bounds only. Estimating the nominal law from the same observation used for the interval can add dependence; the unconditional fixed-rule identity then requires an appropriate joint or conditional argument.