Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 ib Paper 4 12H Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
The Rao-Blackwell theorem says that, for a sufficient statistic and a finite-second-moment estimator , the conditional estimator can be chosen independently of the unknown parameter and has no greater mean squared error for estimating any specified function . Sufficiency makes the conditional distribution of the data given parameter-independent. Conditional expectation preserves the expectation, hence preserves unbiasedness. Writing , the cross term has expectation zero, because . ThereforeEquality holds exactly when almost surely. This proves the squared-loss form, including the usual unbiased-estimator variance statement.
Here is necessary for the stated uniform interval. Put and . The joint density factors asThe factorization theorem for sufficient statistics shows that is sufficient. Also , so is unbiased and has variance .
For , conditional on distinct extrema , exchangeability gives probability that is each endpoint; with probability it is one of the remaining observations, uniform on . Its conditional mean is consequentlyThus the Rao-Blackwell estimator for a uniform scale interval iswhich is unbiased and has no greater mean squared error. For , and the same formula reduces to the original estimator. As a quantitative check, the covariance of two uniform order statistics givesFor instance, after writing , both extreme uniform variances are and their covariance is . These formulas follow by integrating the joint extreme density on ; they also display strict improvement for .