Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2010 iii Paper 28 4 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let be the average over all coordinate tuples in part (a), and the distinct-tuple average in part (b). Every product summand lies in . A proportion , where , of all tuples have distinct coordinates. Thuswhere is the average over the remaining tuples. If there are no remaining tuples, the error is zero. Hence .
For independent uniform choices from indices, any particular pair coincides with probability . A union bound over the pairs givesThis deterministic sampling with and without replacement comparison for bounded products is the needed link between the two averages.
Part (a) identifies the almost-sure limit of as . By part (b) and the reverse martingale convergence theorem, converges almost surely to . Their difference vanishes, soThis is precisely conditional independence. Exchangeability also makes the single-coordinate conditional laws identical, by applying a coordinate transposition and testing against invariant events. The result is the De Finetti theorem, established here by finite symmetrization and the vanishing collision fraction.