Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 208 3 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Put and assume . ThenThus generally has a periodic mean, and generally has a periodic variance. The edge cases allowed by matter: is stationary when , because the mean is then constant, and is stationary for or . In the latter case multiplying iid centered Gaussian white noise by leaves its iid distribution unchanged. For every , but , so is nonstationary. For , is nonstationary because is not constant.
Use the seasonal difference operator . Since ,This is a stationary moving-average model of iid Gaussian white noise. Its covariance is at lag , at lags , and zero otherwise.
For the variance-modulated process the same operation givesIts variance is and its covariance at lag is . Therefore it remains nonstationary for , and the operation doubles the marginal variance at nonzero seasons. Seasonal differencing does not remove periodic variance: it removes a periodic mean, but the periodic variance generally remains. Practical alternatives are a periodic model or seasonal variance standardization; at seasons with the observations are deterministically zero, so division by is not possible there. For the already stationary special cases , filtering preserves stationarity.
A periodically correlated process with period has its mean and two-time covariance unchanged when both times are shifted by . For , the mean is zero andHence is a periodically correlated process. Its covariance period can be smaller than : when is even, , so is already a covariance period.
Seasonality 2026-10-06
Seasonality is systematic repetition at a calendar period. It can appear in a deterministic mean, in a periodic variance, or in dependence across seasons. A seasonal difference operator removes a fixed periodic mean but seasonal differencing does not remove periodic variance. A periodic-looking path alone does not prove a nonstationary process.