Normalize the closed SIR model by its initial susceptible count, writing , , and . Then , and the SIR susceptible-recovered identity becomes . Hence
The positive root of the quadratic approximation is
The displayed small-seed formula requires , and . In particular, a regime is with a much smaller positive seed. Setting the seed exactly to zero produces the disease-free trajectory instead of an outbreak.
Figure 1.
Recruitment and closed-population depletion give different epidemic trajectories
. Original diagrams and generic model calculations generated by the adjacent Python script. Details.
Whenever , divide the first SIR model equation by the recovery equation:
The SIR susceptible-recovered identity follows by integrating from , giving susceptibles as a function of recovered individuals:
Population conservation then gives the infectious count:
These identities extend continuously to the limiting state where the infectious count vanishes.
Divide the susceptible equation by the removed equation, or differentiate the resulting invariant directly, to get . The initial data give the SIR susceptible-recovered identity
Population conservation then gives . Since , the Taylor expansion for small yields
At the end of the outbreak, the infectious count approaches zero. The positive root of the quadratic approximation is
For and a seed satisfying , this reduces to
The truncation also requires , hence a near-threshold regime . The seed must be small but positive: setting it identically to zero gives no epidemic. This is the near-threshold SIR final-size expansion, and the physical removed count is .
Figure 1.
Replenishment permits repeated waves; the closed SIR model has a final-size relation
. Original generic model calculations. The left panel shows a positive trajectory of the discrete recruitment model. The middle panel shows a closed SIR outbreak. The right compares the exact closed-model final-size root with its small-seed quadratic approximation near threshold. Details.
SIR model equations 2026-10-14
For frequency-dependent transmission, the closed SIR model is a system of ordinary differential equations for the fractions :
Here is the coefficient of frequency-dependent transmission, and is the recovery rate, interpreted more generally as the removal rate. Both have units of inverse time. With a constant recovery rate, the associated individual time in the infectious compartment has an exponential distribution with mean ; the SIR model does not require every person to spend exactly that long there. The fractions themselves have no units.[ref]
For counts , , , the same SIR model equations read
The factor keeps the same in both descriptions. Dropping it while keeping these units would fail dimensional analysis. Some existing SIR model variants use the unnormalized mass-action infection convention instead, including the SIR susceptible-recovered identity; their coefficient is in the notation used here.
Adding the SIR model equations gives , a short proof of conservation of population. Nonnegative starting fractions stay nonnegative: the outflow from either the susceptible compartment or the infectious compartment vanishes when that group is empty, while . Thus the susceptible compartment can only shrink and the removed compartment can only grow.
For a concrete initial value problem, stipulate
At the start, the flow into the infectious compartment is of the total per day, and the flow into the removed compartment is of the total per day. Hence per day. If , these correspond to model rates of and people per day, and net growth people per day. A rate need not be an integer count of events on any particular day.
For this SIR model, the basic reproduction number is
It describes one introduced member of the infectious compartment in an otherwise wholly susceptible compartment. The instantaneous reproduction number at the actual starting state is , obtained by freezing the current conditions and the current susceptible compartment's fraction. More generally it is in this SIR model. The basic reproduction number is a ratio of two rates, so it has no units; is a different quantity, the initial removed compartment's fraction.
While , its instantaneous relative growth is
Initially this equals . Freezing gives the early exponential growth approximation with measured in days. It must fail as the susceptible compartment shrinks. An epidemic invasion threshold occurs at ; if , the deterministic SIR model stays at even above that threshold.