Initially and , so . On the fast time , albedo changes by only andThus temperature rapidly falls towards . At the same time while , which seeds selection of the warm branch. Afterwards the approximate slow manifold is : decreasing albedo makes temperature rise slowly back towards . The preceding figure separates these two time scales; a single time axis would compress the initial fall into a nearly vertical segment.
In the sharp-transition regime, after selection of the warm branch . Solving the linear ordinary differential equation with the leading matched value givesThese are outer solutions: their initial temperature is , so the fast cooling layer is required to satisfy the actual initial temperature.
There is a useful qualification to the two-limit argument. For fixed finite , put on the slow manifold. Then , and is an unstable equilibrium with growth rate . The small positive seed from the fast layer can therefore produce a delay of order . The simple exponential approximation assumes that the sharp albedo transition is sufficiently fast to make this delay negligible on the displayed slow scale. It is not a uniform approximation for every fixed as .
Slow manifold 2026-10-31
For a fast-slow system , , the formal critical manifold is . Where the fast linearization has eigenvalues with strictly negative real parts, trajectories rapidly approach a nearby attracting slow manifold and then evolve on the slow time. Near folds or loss of this spectral condition, simply imposing may fail.