Finite mean matters in Wald's equation 2026-10-14
For a simple symmetric random walk starting at zero, let be its first hitting time of . The infinite mean first passage of a simple symmetric random walk shows that almost surely but . Since , assuming a finite expected value for would let Wald's equation assert , a contradiction. The formal expression is not an allowed use of the theorem.[ref]
Compare . From every surviving position in , three consecutive positive increments force absorption within three steps. Each fresh block has probability of this event, so and . This establishes finiteness before invoking the theorem. If is the average remaining time from position , the law of total expectation givesso . Symmetry gives equal exit probabilities at and , and , as Wald's equation predicts. This is a small gambler's ruin problem with two absorbing barriers.
Even for , each bounded stopping time satisfies . The stopped process tends to almost surely, but its expected value does not tend to . Rare long negative excursions retain the balancing contribution. The existing stopped-walk martingale with almost sure but not L1 convergence explains the related failure of uniform integrability; almost sure convergence alone does not permit exchanging a limit and an expected value.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 iii Paper 36 1 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Take a complete, right-continuous filtration , an increasing family of sigma-algebras. Adapted means that is -measurable at each ; càdlàg means right-continuous with left limits. A local martingale is an adapted càdlàg process , with integrable initial value, for which there are stopping times almost surely such that each stopped process is a true martingale. Such a sequence is a localizing sequence. A true martingale is integrable at each time and satisfies for .
The necessary and sufficient condition is that is a Class DL process:A family is uniformly integrable if its members are integrable and as . A stopping time satisfies for all .
For necessity, on the optional stopping theorem gives ; conditional expectations of one integrable variable form a uniformly integrable family. For sufficiency, almost surely, and Class DL upgrades this convergence to on each finite horizon. Pass to the limit in to obtain the martingale identity. Requiring uniform integrability of all times on the entire half-line would be stronger than necessary; Brownian motion is already a counterexample to that stronger requirement.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 iii Paper 36 1 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
First justify that the logarithm is defined at all times from one onward. For planar Brownian motion started at , stop on exiting the annulus , where . This exit time is finite almost surely: the stopped identity gives . The function is harmonic on the annulus, so its stopped process is a bounded martingale. Optional stopping givesHitting zero before the outer circle would require hitting every inner circle first. It therefore has probability zero. Taking a countable sequence of outer radii tending to infinity proves that planar Brownian motion avoids a fixed point. Since has a density and is nonzero almost surely, condition on to apply this result to the future path.
For , and in two dimensions. The Itô formula on annuli therefore givesTo localize explicitly, let . These stopping times increase to infinity almost surely: on each compact time interval the continuous path has a finite maximum and, by point avoidance, a positive minimum radius. Up to , the stochastic integrand has norm at most . Its stopped integral is square-integrable on every finite horizon. The initial value is integrable, as follows from the Rayleigh-density calculation in part d. Hence is a true martingale from time one and is a local martingale. This also gives its quadratic variation from time one as .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 iii Paper 39 3 iii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Use the tree's natural filtration. The stopping times take values in the process horizon . Construct a dominating supermartingale by backward comparison, the finite-horizon Snell envelope. At time two put . At time one the continuation values areCompare these with immediate rewards and to obtain on the upper branch and on the lower branch. Finally setThese definitions explicitly give , , and . Thus is a supermartingale. By part (ii), its stopped process is a supermartingale, so for every allowed ,The reward process itself need not be a supermartingale; the constructed majorant is what proves the bound.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 iii Paper 39 5 i Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let be the given risk-neutral measure, and write . Take to be classical on and continuous at its prescribed terminal value. By Itô formula and the pricing equation for a local volatility model,soThe discounted added asset is a local martingale, as is , while . Consequently is an equivalent local martingale measure for all three assets.
Here is the arbitrage argument, including the usual admissible trading strategy condition. If is the discounted wealth of a self-financing strategy, it is a stochastic integral against the discounted asset prices, plus its initial value, and hence a local martingale. Assume for a fixed , as required for an admissible trading strategy. For a localizing sequence , the stopped process is a martingale. Apply the conditional Fatou lemma to : for , continuity and the stopped martingale identity give . Thus is a supermartingale. An arbitrage would have , and positive probability of . Equivalence of makes that probability positive under , contradicting . Therefore the augmented market has no admissible arbitrage.
Nonnegativity of gives the needed price process, but does not by itself make its discounted local martingale a true martingale. If is bounded, the latter follows by bounded localization, and its price is also . The arbitrage proof above applies to the stated nonnegative classical solution without assuming that additional bound.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 24 4 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Fix and put . The stopping time property implies that is an -measurable random variable with values in : for ,and for the event is the whole space. By part (c), the restriction of to is -measurable.
The evaluation map is measurable from to this product space: the inverse image of a measurable rectangle is . Composing it with the jointly measurable stochastic process gives an -measurable random variableSince this holds for every fixed , the stopped process is adapted. If path regularity holds only almost surely, first apply the proof to its pathwise regular representative; with a completed filtration, the original stopped variable differs only on a null event and is also -measurable. The adaptedness of a stopped right-continuous process requires neither boundedness of nor a martingale assumption; is harmless because .
The first entrance time is a stopping time, because . Before this time ; at entrance, the bounded increments give . Thus the stopped martingaleis a nonnegative martingale. Here the stopped process is a martingale since its increment is , whose conditional expectation given is zero.
The martingale convergence theorem states that a nonnegative martingale converges almost surely to a finite integrable random variable; indeed its expectations are constant, giving the required bound in the L1 norm. Apply this theorem to . On the stopped process equals the original one at every time. HenceThe overshoot bound is why the assumption of bounded increments matters.
Put . Before , all three players are active. Each unordered pair is selected with probability , and each direction of transfer then has conditional probability . Given the current holdings , a transfer within the first pair has mean productFor transfers within the other two pairs the analogous values are and . Averaging over pairs givesAt and after elimination the product is zero, since an eliminated player never re-enters. In particular the stopped process has incrementThe indicator function is -measurable, and the expression in parentheses has zero conditional expectation on its support. The stopped process is adapted and integrable: at fixed , its absolute value is bounded by . HenceThis is the product martingale for three-player token exchange.
Three players with positive integer holdings exchange a token by choosing an unordered active pair uniformly, then choosing the transfer direction fairly. Let be the conserved total, and the stopping time of the first elimination. Given holdings before , the conditional expectation of the change of their product is : transfers in each pair decrease the mean product by the third holding. Thus the displayed stopped process is a martingale. Its nonnegative product term gives , so the monotone convergence theorem first proves integrability of . The bounded product then vanishes by the dominated convergence theorem, yielding . Continuing the deterministic time term beyond elimination instead produces a submartingale.
Stopped process 2026-10-07
The stopped stochastic process follows until the stopping time and thereafter keeps the value when is finite. For a pathwise right-continuous adapted process, the stopped process is adapted, by progressive measurability and measurable evaluation at . When is a martingale, further stopping and integrability conditions determine whether its stopped process is a martingale.
