Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation by Tilmann Gneiting and others (2007, 10.1198/016214506000001437)

By Tilmann Gneiting, Adrian E. Raftery.

Published in the Journal of the American Statistical Association, volume 102, number 477, pp. 359–378.

Online text: sites.stat.washington.edu/raftery/Research/PDF/Gneiting2007jasa.pdf

Cited passages: §1, printed pp. 359–360: reward conventions and optimum-score estimation; §3.1, Example 3, printed p. 363: logarithmic score, relative-entropy argument order and the historical reference to Good (1952); §4.1: density scoring rules.