Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 ib Paper 2 8H c Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-05
Let and be the order statistics. For the symmetric uniform distribution, each observation is above or below with probability , independently. ThusSo is an exact 50% confidence interval.
The observed interval contains values impossible under the sampling model. Both observations must lie within one unit of the parameter, so the interval of all compatible values is . It contains the true parameter almost surely. A support-restricted confidence interval for a uniform location parameter can therefore reportMore precisely, the procedure retains exact 50% unconditional coverage, since the second interval contains almost surely. The intersection is a nonempty interval for every sample in the model and equals for these data. Reporting the full compatible interval alone is also valid and has coverage one. On this sample's large-spread event it lies wholly between the observations; this does not turn the unconditional 50% procedure into a generally 100% procedure.