Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 45 3 i Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Use standard diploid coalescent time units of generations, where is the fixed effective population size, and take . In the neutral Kingman's coalescent, each unordered pair of ancestral lineages merges at rate one. With lineages, the next coalescence time therefore has an exponential distribution with rateThe memoryless construction and the Markov property make these epoch durations independent. During epoch there are branches, each of duration , so the total branch length of a neutral coalescent isBy linearity of expectation,The ancestral branch above the sample's most recent common ancestor is excluded: mutations there would be shared by all sampled chromosomes and would not create segregating sites.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 45 4 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Use standard neutral coalescent time units, so each pair of ancestral lineages merges at rate 1. With lineages, there are possible pairs; consequently the successive waiting times are independent withDuring this epoch there are branches, each of length . Hence the total branch length of a neutral coalescent is , and linearity of expectation givesThe root branch above the sample's common ancestor is excluded: its mutations would be shared by every chromosome and would not be segregating sites in the sample.