Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 iii Paper 34 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Put and . The integrable absolute-log envelope makes these expectations finite. Compactness and continuity of the likelihood ensure that a maximum exists, and maximizing it is equivalent almost surely to maximizing .
First identify the unique maximizer of . Let on the support of the true density. Since ,Equality requires almost surely under the true distribution and no mass outside its support, so the two probability distributions coincide. By identifiability, this happens only for . Equivalently is the Kullback-Leibler divergence from the true distribution to the candidate.
Fix and let . If this set is empty there is nothing to prove. Otherwise it is compact, so continuity and the strict maximum implyOn the event , every point of has , whereas . Hence no maximizer can belong to . The supplied uniform law of large numbers therefore proves compact-parameter consistency of maximum likelihood:
Under the usual regularity conditions, with nonsingular one-observation Fisher information matrix , the asymptotic normality of a maximum likelihood estimator iswhere and is the score function.
For the uniform model, let . For a sample in its support, the likelihood is , decreasing on its nonzero region. Thus the uniform endpoint maximum-likelihood estimator isThe all-zero sample is a probability-zero exception and may be assigned an arbitrary positive estimate. Independence gives on . For ,for this probability is zero. This proves consistency directly.
Let . Its exact cumulative distribution function isFor fixed , this converges to , so . In particular the errors are of order . Explicitly, for every fixed and sufficiently large ,ConsequentlyOne violated regularity condition is parameter-independent support: the density is supported on . Differentiation under the density integral is not valid in the usual regular-model form. Indeed the interior score equals , whose expectation is not zero; the changing endpoint contributes the omitted boundary term. Thus the uniform model is handled by its exact maximum distribution, rather than by the regular asymptotic normality theorem.