Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 37 5 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
First require a proper target: and . The Metropolis–Hastings algorithm uses the Metropolis–Hastings acceptance probabilitySufficient general conditions are phi-irreducibility, aperiodicity, and a drift-minorisation condition establishing geometric ergodicity of the resulting chain, together with a stationary th moment for the observable being averaged. These imply the central limit theorem for a geometrically ergodic Markov chain. The observable's moment condition must be included: conditions on the sampler alone cannot give the theorem for every arbitrary function.
A concrete stronger condition, directly in terms of the proposal, isTogether with a bounded observable, this is an especially simple sufficient answer. The accepted proposal density is , so it is at least . The kernel satisfies a global minorization condition with the target, hence uniform geometric ergodicity, positive Harris recurrence, and aperiodicity. An independent proposal whose importance weight is uniformly bounded is one example. No claim of these properties follows merely from writing down a positive proposal.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 216 1 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
Let be the Markov kernel and its invariant probability measure. Using the conventiongeometric ergodicity means that there are and a finite measurable state-dependent prefactor such thatHere total variation distance is used, and the rate does not depend on . The prefactor need not be uniformly bounded; that stronger property is uniform geometric ergodicity. For a deterministic starting state, this estimate must hold at that state. If the definition is made only -almost everywhere, the subsequent assertions concern those starting states where the prefactor is finite. The reversible Markov chain assumption means .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 216 2 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
Let and let be the uniform distribution on the body. The hit-and-run kernel density lower bound impliesFor the last range, lies in a radius- disc about any of its points, so and . This global Doeblin condition proves irreducibility with respect to and aperiodicity. The entire state space is a small set; , , and satisfy the geometric drift condition.
In fact the conclusion is stronger. Write , where and is the residual Markov kernel. Since , also . Each transition has a probability of resetting to stationarity, and after such a reset every subsequent distribution remains stationary. Equivalently,Thus the algorithm has uniform geometric ergodicity, using the full-dimensional and boundary conventions stated in part (a).