Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 34 1 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
The joint prior predictive distribution is the Bayesian model evidence, obtained by integrating over the shared parameter:It is zero otherwise. This uniform-Pareto model evidence is a joint density, not the product of separately marginalized observation densities: mixing over the common parameter induces dependence.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 34 1 e Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Use the intended hierarchical Bayesian model: the breed parameters are conditionally independent given , and observations are independent given their breed parameters. Put . The uniform-Pareto model evidence factorizes over breeds:Identical marginal prior distributions alone would not determine this product; conditional independence is the additional assumption.