Expectimax 2026-10-25
A game tree evaluation rule using maxima at the controlled player’s decision nodes and expected values at chance nodes:
respectively. Terminal utilities fix the boundary values. These rules exactly optimize a finite-horizon expected utility objective by backward induction. For cyclic infinite-horizon reachability problems, a finite Markov decision process formulation and value iteration replace naive expansion of an infinite game tree. Start with one at successful terminal states and zero elsewhere, keep terminal values fixed, and apply the maximizing/expectation backups repeatedly. The th iterate is the greatest success probability achievable within transitions, by backward induction. These values are nondecreasing and bounded by one. For every policy, eventual success is the increasing set union of success within finite horizons, so its probability is the limit of those finite-horizon probabilities. Taking the supremum over policies and horizons in either order proves that the iterates converge to the optimal eventual-success probability. The limiting fixed-point equations can also admit larger solutions, so the initialization from terminal-success indicators matters.
A form of value iteration that writes each updated state value immediately, so later updates in the same sweep can use the new value.
The game tree alternates MAX nodes for joint robot choices and CHANCE nodes for joint monster outcomes. An interior MAX node has at most children; an interior CHANCE node at most . A terminal safe meeting has utility one and capture has utility zero. With no specified preference for speed, the objective is to maximize the probability of eventual safe meeting.
Use expectimax: maximize at MAX nodes and take the expected value at CHANCE nodes. For nonterminal states, its finite-horizon backup is
Here the horizon counts half-turns, terminal values stay fixed at zero or one, and is zero at nonterminal states. This computes the best chance of success within the horizon. Maximizing the worst monster outcome would solve a different problem from the stipulated random movement.
Because waiting and movement cycles can repeat states, the infinite game tree need not terminate. For the unbounded objective, use value iteration on the finite state graph, starting from terminal-success indicators as above: increases to the optimal eventual-success probability. A reachability-policy method or sufficiently long finite-horizon policies can extract the actions; arbitrary tie choices in the limiting equations must not select a policy that waits forever instead of realizing the value. Alternatively impose an explicit finite horizon and use depth-limited expectimax, stating that changed objective. No method guarantees success with probability one from every initial configuration.