Bradley-Terry maximum-likelihood estimate on a comparison tree
ID: bradley-terry-maximum-likelihood-estimate-on-a-comparison-tree
For a connected tree of comparisons with every observed win fraction strictly between zero and one, the Bradley-Terry model can fit every empirical edge probability exactly. Fix one positive strength to remove scaling ambiguity, then propagate strength ratios along tree edges. Edge log-ratios are independent real coordinates and each binomial log-likelihood term is strictly concave, proving existence and uniqueness of the normalized estimate. Cycles would impose extra compatibility relations.
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