Certain ruin with nonpositive loading and finite claim variance

ID: certain-ruin-with-nonpositive-loading-and-finite-claim-variance

For positive claims with finite variance and , the classical risk model has ruin probability one from any finite capital. At claim times, surplus increments are independent copies of with mean . Negative mean sends their partial sums to minus infinity by the strong law of large numbers. At zero mean, the increments have finite nonzero variance. For every fixed , the central limit theorem gives limiting probability of a partial sum below . The probability of unboundedness below is therefore at least ; as a tail event it has probability zero or one by the Kolmogorov zero-one law, and hence one.

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